ReachTEL has conducted a survey in the seat of Ashgrove where Liberal National Party leader Campbell Newman is trying to unseat Labor's Kate Jones.
It's again raised the question about what the LNP would do if it won government but without Mr Newman.
In Brisbane, Matt Wordsworth reports.
MATT WORDSWORTH: Kate Jones quit the Bligh Cabinet eight months ago to focus on the battle for Ashgrove.
She holds it with a margin of about 7 per cent, but polls have been consistently predicting Campbell Newman would take Ashgrove and take government.
The ReachTEL survey of this morning shows the momentum has been moving in her direction.
James Stewart is operations manager.
JAMES STEWART: She's gained more momentum and she's picked up another 3.4 percentage points and her primary vote last night came in at 44.4 per cent.
MATT WORDSWORTH: Campbell Newman's primary vote is slightly higher but once preferences are distributed according to the 2009 elections results, Kate Jones, for the first time, hits the lead.
JAMES STEWART: Kate Jones at 50.7 and Campbell Newman at 49.3.
MATT WORDSWORTH: ABC election analyst Antony Green says ReachTEL is an automated poll but the results shouldn't be discounted.
ANTONY GREEN: If this were just one poll in isolation you would say well that's a bit of so what but I mean they've done a number of them with the same methodology and the two that have been done once it was clear the election was about the happen or was in progress, there's been a significant narrowing.
Now one thing to say about that result is the same company did a poll next door in Ferny Grove and got a radically different result where Labor was miles behind as they've done in some other polls. It does appear Labor's focus has been very much on Ashgrove. This poll is indicating it's having an effect.
MATT WORDSWORTH: ALP state secretary Anthony Chisholm seized upon the result to highlight its impact on the leadership of the LNP.
ANTHONY CHISHOLM: Well I think what this does is it still, you know, leaves that question unanswered that's been there from day one about what happens if Mr Newman fails to win Ashgrove but the LNP win government - who would be leader?
They couldn't answer that question 12 months ago, they still can't answer it now and I think Queensland is becoming concerned about this.
MATT WORDSWORTH: Up until now Campbell Newman has been saying that they have to win seats like Ashgrove to win government - what do you say to that argument?
ANTHONY CHISHOLM: Well, clearly on the pure mathematics of this, that's completely untrue. It's quite easy for them to win government without winning Ashgrove and indeed based on today's ReachTEL poll that is likely to happen.
That's why, you know, the pressure really needs to be on Mr Newman and the LNP you know to come clean about who would be leader if Mr Newman fails to win Ashgrove but they win government.
MATT WORDSWORTH: Now it would be a party room vote presuming they win government so in the frame comes Jeff Seeney, Lawrence Springborg, Tim Nicholls - have you done any polling on how they go in the community?
ANTHONY CHISHOLM: Well I think that's the problem out there is that, you know, the LNP have had 11 leaders in 10 years in Queensland so there is enormous uncertainty if Mr Newman fails to win Ashgrove.
MATT WORDSWORTH: It's not the first time leadership confusion has destabilised conservative politics in Queensland.
In 2006, the National Party leader Lawrence Springborg and his Liberal counterpart Bruce Flegg fumbled through questions of who would be premier if the Liberals won more seats than the Nationals.
The parties have since been merged but the issued is still rearing its head.
LNP leader Campbell Newman responded a short time ago.
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: I always said this was going to be a tough battle. There are lots of electorates where there are tough battles at the moment, and you know what, the LNP team is strong and united and we are going to fight every single day.
I'm very confident that the people of Ashgrove know what's at stake and that on the day they'll make a decision to back a positive change for Queensland.
(Reporters speaking over the top of one another)
REPORTER: (Inaudible) put his hand up for a leadership position if you don't win, who's next in line then?
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Well again that's purely academic. I'm saying to you -
REPORTER: I just said it in a statement. It's in black and white.
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Well fine, fine Pat but I'm very, very clear that the people of Ashgrove will make a decision.
REPORTER: Who's next in line? You're out, Jeff's out, who's next?
CAMPBELL NEWMAN: Well if I don't win the LNP won't win and we get another three years of the same dud government that can't keep its promises, that's going to cut rack up more debt, that won't support schools, particularly the independent and Catholic schools in the way that I've proposed today. That's what they get.
ELEANOR HALL: And that's the Liberal National Party leader in Queensland Campbell Newman, ending that report from Matt Wordsworth.
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